RSA-260 - When will it be factored?

The largest number ever factored with Shor’s algorithm is 21. And that was back in 2012 which was an improvement from 15 in 2000 or 2001.

I know they say other numbers have been factored. But those are not really “random” numbers and mostly they are not really Shor either.

The trick, as far as i understand it, is that if you already know the two factors you can compile the circuit down to almost nothing before you run it. So you are not really factoring anything. You are confirming an answer you already had. People much smarter than me have written about why this does not count:

https://arxiv.org/abs/1301.7007

https://algassert.com/post/2000

RSA-250 was factored in 2020 on ordinary computers. RSA-260 is the smallest one in the challenge list still standing. Nobody has touched it, classical or quantum.

So that is my bar. If quantum computing is real the proof will be an RSA number like 260 getting factored.

And if that is too much, then fine. Just factor 203.

203 is 7 times 29. You can do it in your head. Do it honestly, without knowing the answer first, and i will believe the hype.

(p.s: i may have jinxed this btw, the moment this will get published, someone will say they have factored rsa 260 or quantum factoring works)